Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn

The recent Arctic sea ice reduction comes with an increase in the ice-free season duration, with comparable contributions of earlier ice retreat and later advance. CMIP5 models all project that the trend towards later advance should progressively exceed and ultimately double the trend towards earlier retreat, causing the ice-free season to shift into autumn. We show that such a shift is a basic feature of the thermodynamic response of seasonal ice to warming. The detailed analysis of an idealised thermodynamic ice–ocean model stresses the role of two seasonal amplifying feedbacks. The summer feedback generates a 1.6-day-later advance in response to a 1-day-earlier retreat. The underlying physics are the property of the upper ocean to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than it can release heat right before ice advance. The winter feedback is comparatively weak, prompting a 0.3-day-earlier retreat in response to a 1-day shift towards later advance. This is because a shorter growth season implies thinner ice, which subsequently melts away faster. However, the winter feedback is dampened by the relatively long ice growth period and by the inverse relationship between ice growth rate and thickness. At inter-annual timescales, the thermodynamic response of ice seasonality to warming is obscured by inter-annual variability. Nevertheless, in the long term, because all feedback mechanisms relate to basic and stable elements of the Arctic climate system, there is little inter-model uncertainty on the projected long-term shift into autumn of the ice-free season.</p

Diurnal inhibition of NMDA-EPSCs at rat hippocampal mossy fibre synapses through orexin-2 receptors.

Diurnal release of the orexin neuropeptides orexin-A (Ox-A, hypocretin-1) and orexin-B (Ox-B, hypocretin-2) stabilises arousal, regulates energy homeostasis and contributes to cognition and learning. However, whether cellular correlates of brain plasticity are regulated through orexins, and whether they do so in a time-of-day-dependent manner, has never been assessed. Immunohistochemically we found sparse but widespread innervation of hippocampal subfields through Ox-A- and Ox-B-containing fibres in young adult rats. The actions of Ox-A were studied on NMDA receptor (NMDAR)-mediated excitatory synaptic transmission in acute hippocampal slices prepared around the trough (Zeitgeber time (ZT) 4-8, corresponding to 4-8 h into the resting phase) and peak (ZT 23) of intracerebroventricular orexin levels. At ZT 4-8, exogenous Ox-A (100 nm in bath) inhibited NMDA receptor-mediated excitatory postsynaptic currents (NMDA-EPSCs) at mossy fibre (MF)-CA3 (to 55.6 ± 6.8% of control, P = 0.0003) and at Schaffer collateral-CA1 synapses (70.8 ± 6.3%, P = 0.013), whereas it remained ineffective at non-MF excitatory synapses in CA3. Ox-A actions were mediated postsynaptically and blocked by the orexin-2 receptor (OX2R) antagonist JNJ10397049 (1 μm), but not by orexin-1 receptor inhibition (SB334867, 1 μm) or by adrenergic and cholinergic antagonists. At ZT 23, inhibitory effects of exogenous Ox-A were absent (97.6 ± 2.9%, P = 0.42), but reinstated (87.2 ± 3.3%, P = 0.002) when endogenous orexin signalling was attenuated for 5 h through i.p. injections of almorexant (100 mg kg(-1)), a dual orexin receptor antagonist. In conclusion, endogenous orexins modulate hippocampal NMDAR function in a time-of-day-dependent manner, suggesting that they may influence cellular plasticity and consequent variations in memory performance across the sleep-wake cycle

Relationships between Arctic sea ice drift and strength modelled by NEMO-LIM3.6

Sea ice cover and thickness have substantially decreased in the Arctic Ocean since the beginning of the satellite era. As a result, sea ice strength has been reduced, allowing more deformation and fracturing and leading to increased sea ice drift speed. We use the version 3.6 of the global ocean–sea ice NEMO-LIM model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean coupled to the Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model), satellite, buoy and submarine observations, as well as reanalysis data over the period from 1979 to 2013 to study these relationships. Overall, the model agrees well with observations in terms of sea ice extent, concentration and thickness. The seasonal cycle of sea ice drift speed is reasonably well reproduced by the model. NEMO-LIM3.6 is able to capture the relationships between the seasonal cycles of sea ice drift speed, concentration and thickness, with higher drift speed for both lower concentration and lower thickness, in agreement with observations. Model experiments are carried out to test the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice drift speed, thickness and concentration to changes in sea ice strength parameter P*. These show that higher values of P* generally lead to lower sea ice deformation and lower sea ice thickness, and that no single value of P* is the best option for reproducing the observed drift speed and thickness. The methodology proposed in this analysis provides a benchmark for a further model intercomparison related to the relationships between sea ice drift speed and strength, which is especially relevant in the context of the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).David Docquier and Antoine Barthélemy work on the PRIMAVERA project (PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment), which is funded by the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 programme, grant agreement no. 641727. François Massonnet is funded by the Belgian Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) and was funded by the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO). Neil F. Tandon is supported by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network. Olivier Lecomte is a research assistant within the Belgian FNRS. The present research benefited from computational resources made available on the Tier-1 supercomputer of the Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles, infrastructure funded by the Walloon Region under the grant agreement no. 1117545. Computational resources have also been provided by the Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif (CÉCI), funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique de Belgique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under grant no. 2.5020.11. We would like to thank Hugues Goosse, Martin Vancoppenolle, Jonathan Raulier and Véronique Dansereau for their very helpful comments regarding this study. We also acknowledge Pierre-Yves Barriat for his help in using computing resources at UCL and Damien François for his advice in improving Python scripts. Finally, we thank the editor Dirk Notz and the two anonymous reviewers for helping to improve the original paper.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

On the influence of model physics on simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

Two hindcast (1983–2007) simulations are performed with the global, ocean-sea ice models NEMO-LIM2 and NEMO-LIM3 driven by atmospheric reanalyses and climatologies. The two simulations differ only in their sea ice component, while all other elements of experimental design (resolution, initial conditions, atmospheric forcing) are kept identical. The main differences in the sea ice models lie in the formulation of the subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution, of the thermodynamic processes, of the sea ice salinity and of the sea ice rheology. To assess the differences in model skill over the period of investigation, we develop a set of metrics for both hemispheres, comparing the main sea ice variables (concentration, thickness and drift) to available observations and focusing on both mean state and seasonal to interannual variability. Based upon these metrics, we discuss the physical processes potentially responsible for the differences in model skill. In particular, we suggest that (i) a detailed representation of the ice thickness distribution increases the seasonal to interannual variability of ice extent, with spectacular improvement for the simulation of the recent observed summer Arctic sea ice retreats, (ii) the elastic-viscous-plastic rheology enhances the response of ice to wind stress, compared to the classical viscous-plastic approach, (iii) the grid formulation and the air-sea ice drag coefficient affect the simulated ice export through Fram Strait and the ice accumulation along the Canadian Archipelago, and (iv) both models show less skill in the Southern Ocean, probably due to the low quality of the reanalyses in this region and to the absence of important small-scale oceanic processes at the models' resolution (~1&amp;deg;)

Summer extreme cyclone impacts on arctic sea ice

In this study the impact of extreme cyclones on Arctic sea ice in summer is investigated. Examined in particular are relative thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to sea ice volume budgets in the vicinity of Arctic summer cyclones in 2012 and 2016. Results from this investigation illustrate that sea ice loss in the vicinity of the cyclone trajectories during each year was associated with different dominant processes: thermodynamic processes (melting) in the Pacific sector of the Arctic in 2012, and both thermodynamic and dynamic processes in the Pacific sector of the Arctic in 2016. Comparison of both years further suggests that the Arctic minimum sea ice extent is influenced by not only the strength of the cyclone, but also by the timing and location relative to the sea ice edge. Located near the sea ice edge in early August in 2012, and over the central Arctic later in August in 2016, extreme cyclones contributed to comparable sea ice area (SIA) loss, yet enhanced sea ice volume loss in 2012 relative to 2016. Central to a characterization of extreme cyclone impacts on Arctic sea ice from the perspective of thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we present an index describing relative thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to sea ice volume changes. This index helps to quantify and improve our understanding of initial sea ice state and dynamical responses to cyclones in a rapidly warming Arctic, with implications for seasonal ice forecasting, marine navigation, coastal community infrastructure, and designation of protected and ecologically sensitive marine zones

PHARAO Laser Source Flight Model: Design and Performances

In this paper, we describe the design and the main performances of the PHARAO laser source flight model. PHARAO is a laser cooled cesium clock specially designed for operation in space and the laser source is one of the main sub-systems. The flight model presented in this work is the first remote-controlled laser system designed for spaceborne cold atom manipulation. The main challenges arise from mechanical compatibility with space constraints, which impose a high level of compactness, a low electric power consumption, a wide range of operating temperature and a vacuum environment. We describe the main functions of the laser source and give an overview of the main technologies developed for this instrument. We present some results of the qualification process. The characteristics of the laser source flight model, and their impact on the clock performances, have been verified in operational conditions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Review of Scientific Instrument

Ice-free at 1.5°C?

Rapid CommunicationThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record

Discussion on how to implement a verbal scale in a forensic laboratory: benefits, pitfalls and suggestions to avoid misunderstandings

In a recently published guideline for evaluative reporting in forensic science, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) recommended the use of the likelihood ratio for the measurement of the value of forensic results. As a device to communicate the probative value of the results, the ENFSI guideline mentions the possibility to define and use a verbal scale, which should be unified within a forensic institution. This paper summarizes discussions held between scientists of our institution to develop and implement such a verbal scale. It intends to contribute to general discussions likely to be faced by any forensic institution that engages in continuous monitoring and improving of their evaluation and reporting format. We first present published arguments in favour of the use of such verbal qualifiers. We emphasize that verbal qualifiers do not replace the use of numbers to evaluate forensic findings, but are useful to communicate the probative value, since the weight of evidence in terms of likelihood ratio are still apprehended with difficulty by both the forensic scientists, especially in absence of hard data, and the recipient of information. We further present arguments that support the development of the verbal scale we propose. Recognising the limits of the use of such a verbal scale, we then discuss its disadvantages: it may lead to the spurious view according to which the value of the observations made in a given case is relative to other cases. Verbal qualifiers are also prone to misunderstandings and cannot be coherently combined with other evidence. We therefore recommend not using the verbal qualifier alone in a written statement. While scientists should only report on the probability of the findings - and not on the probability of the propositions, which are the duty of the Court - we suggest showing examples to let the recipient of information understand how the scientific evidence affects the probabilities of the propositions. To avoid misunderstandings, we also advise to mention in the statement what the results do not mean. Finally, we are of the opinion that if experts were able to coherently articulate numbers, and if recipients of information could properly handle such numbers, then verbal qualifiers could be abandoned completely. At that time, numerical expressions of probative value will be appropriately understood, as other numerical measures that most of us understand without the need of any further explanation, such as expressions for length or temperature